Demographic Outlook
Published April 7, 2026
North Carolina top destination of domestic migrants
North Carolina continues to be one of the nation’s leading destinations for people relocating from other states. Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, the state saw a net gain of 84,000 domestic migrants — the largest gain of any state. Since the 2020 Census, North Carolina has added 477,000 residents through state-to-state migration, a total exceeded only by Texas (813,000) and Florida (890,000).1 When combined with international migration and natural increase, the state has grown by 757,000 people since April 1, 2020 — an average of about 395 people a day.
As of July 1, 2025, North Carolina’s population stands at 11.2 million, making it the ninth largest state. If current trends continue, the state is projected to surpass both Georgia and Ohio and become the seventh largest state in the early 2030s.
While strong growth is expected to continue, several factors are likely to slow the pace during the latter half of the decade. An aging population and lower fertility rates will reduce natural increase, federal policy changes will limit international migration, and growth in western North Carolina will depend on continued investments in infrastructure and housing.
The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau already show the impact of these factors. Population growth reached a peak of 180,000 between 2023 and 2024 but dropped to 146,000 the next year — roughly 81% of the previous year’s level or about 34,000 fewer new residents.
Natural increase accounted for just 6% of population growth from April 1, 2020 through July 1, 2025, and is projected to shift to natural decrease by 2033. Domestic migration remains strong but has fallen by about 20,000 from its post-COVID peak of 104,000 people in 2020-21. International migration has become a more significant contributor since 2020, accounting for nearly half of statewide growth between 2023 and 2024 (83,000). However, international migration fell to 47,000 last year—about half of the previous year’s level—and is expected to continue declining in response to federal policy changes. Given these changes, the latest population projections show the state adding another 534,000 residents between 2025 and 2030. This is just over two-thirds the pace of increase in the first half of the decade.
Growth continues in and around urban areas and retirement destinations
North Carolina has more growing counties this decade than in the last, but growth patterns vary significantly across regions and county types. Seventy-six of the state’s 100 counties are gaining population. Urban and regional center/suburban counties — home to about two-thirds of the state’s residents — have accounted for 77% of North Carolina’s growth since 2020 and are expected to absorb nearly 80% of growth through 2030. None are projected to decline.
Rural counties,2 home to roughly 3.8 million residents, are expected to receive only about 20% of statewide growth through 2030. One-third of rural counties are projected to be smaller in 2030 than they are today. Rural growth is highly uneven and strongest in counties located along the coast, in the mountains, near lakes, or adjacent to major metro areas. For example, Brunswick County, one of the nation’s fastest growing counties, is projected to add another 36,000 residents (+20.5%) by 2030.
Regionally, the central region drives most of the state’s population increase — about two-thirds of growth across in the short-term (2025-30) and long-term (2025-60) — while the eastern and western regions contribute smaller shares. By 2050, the central region’s share of the state population is expected to rise to 58%, while the eastern and western regions slowly decline as a share of the total.
Hurricane Helene slowed population growth in western North Carolina
The first official post-Helene population estimates were published by the U.S. Census Bureau on March 26. These estimates provide a snapshot of the population as of July 1, 2025 — nine months following the storm.
Before Helene, western North Carolina’s population was already growing more slowly than eastern and central North Carolina (1.0% growth from July 2023 to July 2024, compared with 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively). Growth slowed across all regions between July 2024 and July 2025, but western North Carolina’s rate was cut in half to 0.5% (+10,000), and several of the hardest-hit counties lost population.
Table 1. Population Change by Region and Helene Impacts/Declarations, July 1, 2024-July 1, 2025
| Area of NC | Number of Counties | Population as of July 1 | Population Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In Area | with loss (23-24) | with loss (24-25) | 2024 | 2025 | Numeric | Percent | |
| Western NC | 30 | 2 | 6 | 1,939,010 | 1,949,262 | 10,252 | 0.5% |
| Helene Lower Impact | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1,295,360 | 1,306,347 | 10,987 | 0.8% |
| Helene Higher Impact | 9 | 1 | 4 | 643,650 | 642,915 | -735 | -0.1% |
| Excluding Buncombe | 8 | 1 | 3 | 364,423 | 365,498 | 1,075 | 0.3% |
| Buncombe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 279,227 | 277,417 | -1,810 | -0.6% |
| Non-Western NC | 70 | 10 | 12 | 9,113,051 | 9,248,706 | 135,655 | 1.5% |
| Non-Western Declared | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2,709,015 | 2,757,847 | 48,832 | 1.8% |
| State | 100 | 12 | 18 | 11,052,061 | 11,197,968 | 145,907 | 1.3% |
| FEMA A-G | 26 | 2 | 6 | 1,790,171 | 1,799,630 | 9,459 | 0.5% |
| FEMA A-B | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2,857,854 | 2,907,479 | 49,625 | 1.7% |
Source: US Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates
Net international migration declined statewide between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, compared to the previous period (July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024). However, western North Carolina was the only region where domestic migration also fell, dropping from 17,000 to 12,000. Helene likely caused more people to move out than what is seen in a normal year, but also likely caused fewer people to move into the area. Unfortunately, these data don’t demonstrate the degree to which the number of in- and out-migrants changed. These data only provide the net difference between those who arrived from other regions and those who left the area.
The impacts from the Helene, which struck the region in late September 2024, were uneven within the region. Four of the nine counties most affected by Helene — those where at least 5% of housing units qualified for FEMA housing assistance funds — lost population from 2024 to 2025: Buncombe, McDowell, Mitchell, and Watauga. Buncombe County saw the largest decline, losing 1,810 residents, despite having grown by about 2,381 people per year before the storm.
Current projections suggest a slow recovery. Between now and 2030, the region is projected to gain approximately 10,000 new residents annually (compared to 15,000 per year during the first half of the decade). The pace of that recovery will depend heavily on continued investments in housing and infrastructure.
Schools impacted by demographic change
The school age population (ages 5–17) is expected to dip slightly over the next five years, decreasing from about 8,500 to 1.7 million in 2030. In contrast, the college age population (ages 18–24) will grow modestly, increasing by 21,000 to 1.1 million in 2030.
Colleges and universities, however, still face an approaching enrollment cliff as this age group is projected to decline during the 2030s. The fastest-growing segment of the young population is the early-childhood population (ages 0–4), which has been increasing due to a recent growth in births. Between 2025 and 2030, North Carolina is expected to gain approximately 32,000 more pre-kindergarten age children.
Labor force impacted by slow growing working-age population
The combination of an aging Baby Boom generation and slower growth in the number of children is creating workforce pressures. The working age population is expanding more slowly as many older workers retire. From 2025 to 2030, North Carolina’s prime-to-late working age population (ages 25–64) is projected to grow by 198,000 people, a 3% increase, compared with a 5% increase in the total population.
Although more Americans are working later in life, age 65 remains a major transition point, and the pool of younger workers replacing retirees has steadily shrunk. In 1950, there were 3.2 early career adults (ages 20–24) for every adult nearing retirement (ages 60–64); today, that ratio is just 1.2.
North Carolina is better positioned than many states to manage this shift. A diverse, growing economy, educational opportunities, and a lower cost of living compared to most major metro areas continue to attract young adults from other states and abroad, and fewer young residents leave the state. As a result, the younger segment of the prime working age population (ages 25–44) has grown robustly — a trend expected to continue. This group is projected to increase by more than 4%, reaching 3 million people by 2030.
Population aging continues
The final cohort of Baby Boomers will reach 65 in 2029. Since the first Boomers reached this milestone in 2011, North Carolina’s older adult population has expanded rapidly. Although the state attracts many retirees, most of this growth is due to residents aging in place.
Between 2025 and 2030, the number of adults age 65 and older will grow at three times the rate of the total population. By 2030, North Carolina will have 2.4 million older adults — an increase of 282,000, or 14%. At that point, older adults will outnumber children, and one in five North Carolinians will be 65 or older. At the end of this decade, only 20 counties will have less than 20% of residents in this age group.
The population of the “oldest old” (age 85+) will also rise significantly, increasing by 56,000 — or 27% — during the same period to 263,000 by 2030.
Census 2030
Accurate population estimates and projections depend on the completeness of the decennial census, the constitutionally-mandated enumeration of the population used to apportion congressional seats. Obtaining an accurate census requires counting individuals just once in the place where they usually reside.
Between 2026 and 2029, North Carolina’s local governments will have opportunities to participate in six geographic programs that will shape where the U.S. Census Bureau records population in 2030. Beginning in 2028, North Carolina and its local governments will form “complete count” committees to encourage residents to participate in the 2030 Census, with a focus on residents and communities that have historically been undercounted. Investing in a complete count will help North Carolina secure the political representation and public funding to which it is entitled — resources that depend directly on an accurate and complete 2030 Census.