Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
This year – 2025 - was the peak year for high school graduates in the United States, according to projections by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). From this peak, the number of high school graduates will steadily decline through 2041. According to WICHE, North Carolina is one of the few states where the number of high school graduates is expected to be higher in 2041 than in 2025. However, North Carolina community colleges and universities will not be spared from the challenge of slowing enrollment growth .
Consider trends over the last two decades. Beginning in 1997, the number of graduates from public high schools in NC increased every year through 2019 – adding on average 2,243 graduates per year (+2.9%). That is enough students to fill three average-sized high schools in North Carolina each year.
According to WICHE the number of public and private high school graduates in North Carolina increased by 29,000 students from 2009 to 2025. Over the next 16 years, North Carolina is expected to see an increase of only 1,000 graduates – from 122,000 in 2025 to 123,000 in 2041.
Another way to look at it is that between 2009 and 2025, the number of high school graduates increased by an average 1.8% annually. Over the coming 16 years, the number of high school students will remain virtually the same every year – an average of 0.1% annual growth.
Thus, community colleges and universities are now operating in an environment where the pipeline of potential new students moving directly from high school is growing slowly. This will create new challenges for post-secondary schools and programs after so many years of strong growth.
What's Driving the Slow Down?
School enrollments are impacted by the number of births occurring in previous years. Births peaked in 2007 in the nation and in North Carolina, so not surprisingly – 18 years later – at 160,000 people - we are experiencing a peak in the number of 18-year-olds in 2025. According to our latest projections, the number of 18-year-olds is expected to fall from this peak to 156,000 by 2030 (4,000 people or -3% decrease) but recover slightly and remain relatively stable around 158,000 per year during the 2030s.
This pattern follows what occurred with births. Following the peak in 2007, the number of births precipitously fell by 8,600 from 131,000 in 2007 to 122,000 by 2010 and fell another 3,000 to 118,000 by 2013 then stabilized around 120,000 per year since (with a drop during the COVID pandemic and a rebound during the recovery).
The number of births is determined by fertility rates and the number of women in the ages for which birth is possible. While fertility rates remain low, the number of young adults in North Carolina continues to increase through migration and the aging of children into young adulthood. Thus, in the long run we expect births, and subsequently the number of 18-year-olds, to increase. Our latest projections predict a return to sustained growth in 18-year-olds beginning in 2039 – adding an estimated 1,300 people per year (+0.8%) through 2050.
While community colleges and universities will face relatively slow growth in the population of recent high school graduates, the longer-term growth potential remains stable, if not as robust as it was earlier in the century. North Carolina community colleges and universities are better positioned for the future than colleges and universities in other states as North Carolina has benefited by being a destination for migrants from other states and countries.
About The OSBM Population Projections
The State Demographer in the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management produces population projections annually. These population projections provide insights into population changes occurring within the state so that state agencies, local governments, and others can plan to meet the future needs of North Carolinians. The population projections referenced in this blog are the Vintage 2024 Population Projections and they incorporated trends shown in the latest population estimates (the Vintage 2023 Population Estimates). You can access summary tables or the several datasets that provide population projections by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin for the state, regions, and counties.