Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, 84,000 more people moved to North Carolina from other states than those who moved away. According the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates, this was the largest net gain in state-to-state migrants among all states and the District of Columbia. It was almost 20,000 more people than either Texas (+67,000) or our neighbor South Carolina (+66,000). It was double the number of state-to-state migrants of our neighbor Tennessee (+42,000), which rounded out the top four states for net domestic migration.
North Carolina Remains Top 3 for Growth
North Carolina continues to add more people than all other states except Florida and Texas. Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, North Carolina added 146,000 people. At 1.3%, the state had the 3rd fastest growth between 2024 and 2025 – surpassed by only South Carolina (1.5%) and Idaho (1.4%), states with much smaller populations than North Carolina.
If we look back to the start of the decade, the state added 757,000 people from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025. Since the 2020 Census, North Carolina’s growth was 7.2%. This is the 6th fastest growth in the nation.
Will Strong Growth Continue the Second Half of the Decade?
At mid-decade (July 1, 2025), North Carolina’s population reached 11.2 million people. If the state grows by the same amount in the second half of the decade as it did in the first, its population will increase by about 1.5 million between 2020 and 2030. This growth would slightly exceed the increase North Carolina experienced during the 2000s.
However, the U.S. Census Bureau noted that growth has slowed nationally and in North Carolina over the last year – driven primarily by slowing of international migration. In addition, net domestic migration, while estimated to be at a level slightly larger than the 2023-24 period (84,000 vs. 83,000), has dropped significantly from the net gain of 104,000 domestic migrants the state experienced between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021.
Our latest population projections predict the state’s growth will be around 1.3 million throughout the decade. Even with slowing growth, North Carolina’s population is likely to surpass the population sizes of Georgia and Ohio early next decade to become the 7th largest state in the nation.
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The U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates on an annual basis. The state population estimates are usually reported at the end of December but were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. These state population estimates will be followed up by the population estimates for counties in March and the estimates for incorporated places (municipalities) in May.
The State Demographer’s office also publishes population estimates for counties and municipalities. Our population projections forecast state and county population through 2060.
See Counts, Estimates, and Projections, Oh My! to find out more about the differences in these sources. The State Demographer is part of the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates and the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Projections.