Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
The previous blog post highlighted the increasing importance of international migration to population growth in the United States and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina. Between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2025, the nation gained 8.3 million people through net international migration – representing 81% of national population growth. During the same period, North Carolina added 232,000 people through international migration – 31% of the state’s population growth.
What is Net International Migration?
Population change is shaped by two components:
- Natural change (births minus deaths)
- Net migration (in-migration minus out-migration)
At the national level, net migration consists solely of net international migration (NIM), or the permanent movement of people into and out of the United States, regardless of citizenship status or birthplace.
At the state and county levels, net migration includes both NIM and domestic net migration – permanent movements of people between states and counties.
When measuring NIM, the U.S. Census Bureau includes these broad categories of immigration flows:
- Foreign-born immigration – foreign-born people moving into the United States
- Foreign-born emigration – foreign-born people moving out of the United States
- Net native migration – the net of U.S. born people moving into and out of the United States
- Net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico – the net of people moving between stateside and Puerto Rico
- U.S. citizen foreign-born migration – the migration of the population born abroad of U.S. citizen parents
- Armed Forces movements – movement of U.S. Armed Forces to and from other countries
U.S. Citizens Included in Net International Migration
Most U.S. citizens who move do so within the country, which is counted as domestic migration (state to state or county to county). However, some U.S. citizens leave the U.S. for extended periods or permanently. When they do, they are counted as international out-migrants. When they return, they are counted as international in-migrants. For example, Cumberland County often sees high NIM gains from soldiers and their families relocating from overseas to Ft. Bragg.
Noncitizens Move to North Carolina from Both Abroad and Other States
Noncitizens can move to North Carolina from either a foreign country or another U.S. state. Those arriving from abroad are considered international in-migrants, while those arriving from other states are counted as domestic in-migrants.
Similarly, noncitizens leaving North Carolina for another state are counted as domestic out-migrants. Those leaving for another country are counted as international out-migrants. At the county level, noncitizens moving from one county to another within North Carolina are also considered domestic migrants when measuring county-to-county migration.
Changes in Arrivals from Abroad in NC
While the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual population estimates report only net migration, the American Community Survey (ACS) offers more detail about the people who moved from abroad or another state.1
During the 2010s:
- About 50,000 people per year moved to North Carolina from abroad
- Roughly 49% (25,000 per year) were U.S. citizens
COVID-19 slowed both domestic and international migration and disrupted survey collections. The ACS was not reported for 2020, but we know that international migration fell sharply in 2020 because many people were afraid to travel, could not legally enter the United States, and because there were limited jobs available to draw international migrants. The 2021 ACS showed that 44,000 moved to North Carolina from abroad during the previous year. Migration then rebounded quickly, rising to a peak of 86,000 between 2023 and 2024.
Importantly, the number of U.S. citizens arriving from abroad has remained stable at around 25,000 per year. The post-2020 fluctuations stem primarily from changes in noncitizen migration.
Noncitizens Moving from Other States
As stated at the beginning of this post, noncitizens can move to North Carolina either directly from another country or from another state. The number of noncitizens moving to North Carolina from another state averaged about 15,000 a year 2010 through 2015 and then averaged about 18,000 from 2016 through 2019. Post-2020, the number of noncitizens moving from other states peaked at 22,000 between 2022 and 2023 – but on average has remained about 18,000 annually.2
Combined Noncitizens Migration to North Carolina
During the 2010s, about 42,000 noncitizens per year moved to North Carolina, with roughly 60% arriving directly from abroad. Since 2020, the average has risen to 57,000 per year, with 68% moving directly from other countries. The peak occurred between 2023 and 2024, when 59,000 noncitizens moved to the state.
What Does the Future Hold? Trends in International Migration May Hold the Answer
The 2025 ACS estimates showing the characteristics of new migrants to North Carolina will not be available until September 2026. However, the latest population estimates already show a decline in NIM—from a post-COVID high of 83,000 (2023-2024) to 47,000 (2023-2024).
Given immigration policy changes beginning in 2024 and expanded in 2025, the upcoming ACS release will likely show a decline in noncitizen arrivals.
Going forward, a key question is how much further these numbers may fall. Nearly one-third of North Carolina’s recent growth comes from NIM, and noncitizen immigrants accounted for 68% of those arriving from abroad. Noncitizens also play a role in domestic migration flows.
Unless more U.S. citizens begin moving to North Carolina, reduced noncitizen migration will likely slow the state’s future population growth compared to the rapid increases observed since 2020.
- 1
There will not be perfect correspondence between the ACS and the annual population estimates as the annual population estimate references net migration change between July 1st of the previous year to July 1st of the estimate year whereas the ACS reports change in residence of respondents by calendar year. In addition, because the ACS is a sample survey of current US residents it does not estimate emigration but can provide an estimate of migration flows between states.
- 2
We report only noncitizens who became new North Carolina residents. Although the ACS allows estimation of both arrivals and departures, we do not include noncitizens who left the state or citizens who moved between North Carolina and other states in the past year.