Immigration to Become the Sole Driver of U.S. Population Growth

What Does This Mean for North Carolina? Part 1

National population projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the U.S. Census Bureau show that sometime between 2030 and 2042,1 the number of deaths in the United States will begin to exceed the number of births. Once this occurs, immigration will be the only source of national population growth.

At the national level, net migration represents only international movement. At the state and county level, net migration includes both international and domestic (state-to-state or county-to-county) migration.

For North Carolina, as in much of the country, net migration has become the primary source of population growth. Declining fertility and an aging population have reduced natural increase. Most North Carolina counties now experience natural decrease. Since 2020, natural increase has accounted for only 6% of North Carolina’s total population growth. 

North Carolina’s Migration Gain - Third Largest in the Nation

Between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that North Carolina gained 709,000 people through net migration—the third-largest increase among all states. During the pandemic, the state saw an especially strong surge in domestic migration, including a net gain of 104,000 people from other states between July 2020 and July 2021, the highest level since 2005–06. While North Carolina remained the top destination for domestic migrants between July 2024 and July 2025, that gain (84,000) was about 81% of its recent peak. 

International Migration an Important Factor in North Carolina’s Post-2020 Growth

International migration has also become a more significant factor in recent years. It reached a high point between July 2023 and July 2024, accounting for nearly half of the state’s total population growth during that period. Since 2020, 31% of North Carolina’s growth—about 232,000 people—has come from net international migration, expanding the state’s foreign-born workforce. 

However, compared to some other states, international migration plays a smaller role in North Carolina’s overall growth. For example: 

• Florida gained over 1.1 million people through international migration since 2020, representing 59% of its growth.
• Texas added 1 million people, about 40% of its growth.
• States such as California, Illinois, and New York would have seen even greater population losses without international migration.

Migration Soon to be Sole Contributor to North Carolina’s Population Growth

Looking ahead, North Carolina’s latest projections indicate the state will begin experiencing natural decrease in 2033. Unless fertility or life expectancy rise significantly, future population growth will depend entirely on domestic and international migration. As the gap between births and deaths widens, population growth will slow unless the state continues to attract more people than it loses—including a growing share from international migration. Because immigrants tend to arrive as young adults and often come from countries with higher fertility rates, the exact timing of this shift depends heavily on future immigration levels.

Projected Tipping Point for Natural Decrease

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  The latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office incorporate recent federal immigration policy changes. The U.S. Census Bureau’s projections, produced earlier, assume pre-2023 immigration trends (Main scenario) or levels of immigration 50% higher than the main series (High) or lower than those trends (Low).