Author: John Quinterno, Governor’s Census Liaison
New population data from the U.S. Census Bureau estimated North Carolina’s population hit 11.2 million as of July 1, 2025. That’s up 7.2 percent from April 1, 2020, putting us among the six fastest-growing states in the country.
Population growth isn’t just about new people. It’s also about political representation because the U.S. Constitution allocates seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among 50 states according to their populations as counted in the decennial Census.
If seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were reapportioned based on the 2025 population estimates, North Carolina would keep the 14th congressional seat gained after the 2020 Census. But we’d still fall a bit short of earning a 15th seat.
The state’s prospects for gaining 15th seat in Congress will depend on its population growth over the next five years and the completeness of the 2030 Census.
NC Added Nearly a Million People in the Last Five years…and Why It Matters
Since the 2020 Census, the estimated number of North Carolina residents has grown by 757,000, rising to 11.2 from 10.4 million people. North Carolina remains the nation’s ninth most-populous state.
With an Estimated 11.2 Million People in 2025, North Carolina is the Ninth Most-Populous State
| State | 2025 Rank | Population Estimate (July 1) | # Change 202-25 (Estimate) | % Change 2020-25 (Estimate) | Total House Seats (2020 Census) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 1 | 39,355,309 | -200,394 | -0.5% | 52 |
| Texas | 2 | 31,709,821 | 2,560,323 | 8.8% | 38 |
| Florida | 3 | 23,462,518 | 1,924,311 | 8.9% | 28 |
| New York | 4 | 20,002,427 | -201,269 | -1.0% | 26 |
| Pennsylvania | 5 | 13,059,432 | 56,679 | 0.4% | 17 |
| Illinois | 6 | 12,719,141 | -102,600 | -0.8% | 17 |
| Ohio | 7 | 11,900,510 | 101,065 | 0.9% | 15 |
| Georgia | 8 | 11,302,748 | 588,887 | 5.5% | 14 |
| North Carolina | 9 | 11,197,968 | 756,576 | 7.2% | 14 |
| Michigan | 10 | 10,127,884 | 48,522 | 0.5% | 13 |
Robust population growth in recent decades has increased the size of North Carolina’s congressional delegation, which has risen from 11 members after the 1980 Census to 14 members after the 2020 Census. In 2020, North Carolina was one of six states to gain a seat, along with Colorado, Florida, Montana, Oregon, and Texas (two seats). California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, meanwhile, all lost one seat each.
North Carolina's Congressional Delegation Has Grown to 14 from 11 Seats Since 1980
| Census Year | Census Population (April 1) | Total House Seats (for enumerated decade) | Change in Total Seats (last census to current) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 5,874,429 | 11 | 0 |
| 1990 | 6,658,630 | 12 | 1 |
| 2000 | 8,067,673 | 13 | 1 |
| 2010 | 9,565,781 | 13 | 0 |
| 2020 | 10,453,948 | 14 | 1 |
If reapportionment were to occur based the Census Bureau’s 2025 population estimates —rather than the decennial Census—seven congressional seats would shift. California would lose two seats, and Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island would lose one each. Texas and Florida would each gain two seats, while Arizona, Idaho, and Utah would gain one apiece. North Carolina would be about 269,000 people short of the cutoff needed to add a 15th seat.
If Reapportionment Occurred Based on 2025 Population Estimates, Six House Seats Would Shift States
States Gaining Seats
| State | 2025 Population Estimate (July 1) | Total House Seats (Estimate) | Seat Change from 2020 (Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 7,623,818 | 10 | 1 |
| Florida | 23,462,518 | 30 | 2 |
| Idaho | 2,029,733 | 3 | 1 |
| Texas | 31,709,821 | 40 | 2 |
| Utah | 3,538,904 | 5 | 1 |
States Losing Seats
| State | 2025 Population Estimate (July 1) | Total House Seats (Estimate) | Seat Change from 2020 (Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 39,355,309 | 50 | -2 |
| Illinois | 12,719,141 | 16 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 5,830,405 | 7 | -1 |
| New York | 20,002,427 | 25 | -1 |
| Oregon | 4,273,586 | 5 | -1 |
| Rhode Island | 1,114,521 | 1 | -1 |
However, the state has another five years before the decennial census that will decide if North Carolina gains another Congressional seat. The growth trends of the last five years provide clues about the likelihood of the state adding a seat.
Future Migration Patterns Will Likely Determine Whether NC Gains a Seat in 2030
It is possible for North Carolina to gain an additional congressional seat after the 2030 Census. Whether or not that happens depends on the state’s population growing from now until 2030 as it has in the first half of the decade and the completeness of the 2030 Census.
People moving to our state has driven North Carolina’s growth since the last decennial census. About 94% of North Carolina’s growth since 2020 has come from people moving here—two-thirds from other states and one-third from abroad (including returning military members and expatriates).
If the population of every state were to change at the same rates the Census Bureau estimates occurred between 2020 and 2025, North Carolina’s 2030 population would be just shy of 12 million people. Under the federal apportionment formula, the state would secure another seat in the House of Representatives.
Under this scenario, 12 congressional seats would change hands after the 2030 Census.
If Reapportionment Occurred Based on Estimated Population Growth Trends from 2020 to 2025, North Carolina Would Gain a House Seat
States Gaining Seats
| State | 2030 Population Projection | Total House Seats (Projection) | Seat Change from 2020 (Projection) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8,089,532 | 10 | 1 |
| Florida | 25,386,829 | 31 | 3 |
| Georgia | 11,891,635 | 15 | 1 |
| Idaho | 2,220,343 | 3 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 11,954,544 | 15 | 1 |
| Texas | 34,270,144 | 42 | 4 |
| Utah | 3,806,207 | 5 | 1 |
States Losing Seats
| State | 2030 Population Projection | Total House Seats (Projection) | Seat Change from 2020 (Projection) |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 39,154,915 | 48 | -4 |
| Illinois | 12,616,541 | 16 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 5,954,077 | 7 | -1 |
| New York | 19,801,158 | 24 | -2 |
| Oregon | 4,309,890 | 16 | -1 |
| Pennsylvania | 13,116,111 | 1 | -1 |
| Rhode Island | 1,131,685 | 1 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 6,051,251 | 7 | -1 |
The biggest gainer would be Texas (4 seats), followed by Florida (3 seats) and Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah (1 seat each). The biggest loser would be California (-4 seats), followed by New York (-2 seats), Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin (-1 seat each).
A Complete 2030 Count Is Essential to Securing an Additional Congressional Seat
Even if North Carolina continues its trajectory of growth, the state only will receive an additional seat if its population is counted completely in the 2030 Census. That is not a simple task.
Counting every person residing in the state once, just once, and in the right place is challenging even in the best of circumstances. The 2030 Census already is facing headwinds due to:
- limited federal funding,
- technological changes in how the Census Bureau collects responses,
- declining response rates,
- growing public distrust,
- and an increasingly hard-to-count population.
North Carolina may need to invest more financial resources than in the past in census outreach to make sure residents participate in the 2030 Census. Securing the political representation our residents deserve depends on everyone being counted despite the many challenges the next census faces.
A Note About Congressional Apportionment
The US Constitution allocates seats in the House of Representatives among the states according to their populations as recorded in the Decennial Census. Each state receives one seat, with the remaining seats allocated by population: the more populous the state, the more seats it receives. Reapportionment occurs every decade, but since Congress has fixed its size at 435 seats, reapportionment is a zero-sum process: if one state gains a seat, another state must lose one.
The population estimates prepared annually by the Census Bureau play no role in the apportionment process. They also measure the population more narrowly than does the Decennial Census. That said, the estimates can help illustrate potential trends and changes.